Quick Overview

Bloody Monday! And Rejected EMAs!

Another roller coaster weekend. But this time, we followed up with a Bloody Monday.

The entirety of the week comprised of “wicks” shooting to either side of the narrow trading range. This is a clear indication of “liquidity hunts”. Institutional money looking to distribute (and/or accumulate) in target price-areas where retail investors are likely to place their orders. Once they tap into that liquidity, the price promptly returns to the range. We witnessed that all week and cautioned against trading the lower time frames.

If price action in the past week frustrated traders, the weekend was just as bad . Bitcoin bursted out of its trading range early in the day and shot up to $3660 to test the 21 EMA.  Once again, sellers promptly stepped in and the move was sold into. Krown managed to catch the move live on video this Saturday. He was quick to place a short himself  – a rather exciting video after week of lethargic price action!

The following events contributed to Krown’s conviction in the short.

1. Rejection of the daily 21 EMA

2. Rejection of the daily 10 SMA

3. Rejection of the weekly 10 SMA.

Furthermore, Bitcoin is still playing out the the larger symmetrical triangle that we’ve been discussing. Taking all of this into consideration, it’s no surprise that Monday started off with blood.

All signs still point to (at least) $3250

We’ve been saying it for almost a month now. All signs point to the $3250 area. Nothing has changed. There has been far too much confluence to suggest otherwise, namely:

1. The Symmetrical Triangle

2. Double-Top Murder Formation

3. Weekly 200 SMA

The Symmetrical Triangle

As depicted in the previous reports, BTC was forming  a Symmetrical Triangle for weeks. It finally broke down at the $3850 region. While price action remains below that level, the measured move for this formation points to the $3250 region.

The Double Top

Then we had the Double-Top “M for Murder” formation on the 3-Day. The break of the neckline of this formation occurred at the $3700 region. It’s measured move pointed to the $3250 region as well. Considering this is a double-top formation on a higher time frame, we had a high degree of confidence in it playing out (and so far it is).

The 200 MA

Finally, we have the 200 MA that is sitting on the $3250 region as well – confluencing with both measured moves. The 200 MA is the mammoth of all MAs – especially on the weekly time frame. Almost all eyes are on this moving average. And the more eyes you have on a support/resistance line, the stronger it is likely to be. Bitcoin has been ranging between this 200 SMA and the 200 EMA. A break of either one of these will likely lead to a bigger move.

We’ve tested the 200 EMA a couple of times already – and it’s proven itself as strong resistance.  And now, it looks like Bitcoin wants to test the support at 200 SMA another time. Will it hold?

Note: The 200MA has creeped up since the last test in December where it was sitting at the $3100 level. As things stand, the 200MA is currently sitting at $3298 (Bitstamp).

Lows in? Nope – Not yet.

Price may very well bounce of the 200 SMA. However, we strongly believe that Bitcoin is eventually going to break through this level and make new lows. We typically like to see at least a few flags turn green to indicate a possible low. Some of these flags are:

1. High Volume Buying
2. Volatility Index
3. NVT Signal

None of these signals are flashing on – which makes us lean to newer lows.  Our eyes are on some key levels of support:

1. $2450  zone
2. $1900 zone
3. $1150 zone

Of course, these need to happen one at a time. When will this happen? Well, time-analysis can be tricky. These things can take time to play out. That being said there's a counterpoint that may indicate a more immediate break of the level: The Monthly 55 EMA.

55 EMA Monthly:  An S&R Flip?

55 EMA on the monthly has seemed to have turned from support to resistance. This is an extremely bearish sign. The monthly 55 EMA has successfully held as support on all prior monthly closes.  However, as we inch towards the end of this month of January, the monthly 55 EMA seems to have given way.  

Support has turned into resistance (S&R Flip) as January struggles to break past the 55 EMA sitting at $3670 level. This confluenced perfectly with the rejection of Bitcoin’s breakout this weekend

We still have three days left for Monthly candle close. But as things stand, it likely that we are going to close underneath the 55 EMA. An official close below the 55 EMA will make the larger picture look grim.

However, anything is possible in Bitcoin land. A dramatic move to the upside should not be discounted. A lot can happen in three days.

Ethereum: Leading The Market Up ...And Back Down!

Ethereum’s news driven rally back in December 2018 took the entire market up with it. However, we cautioned that it is very likely that it takes the entire market down with it as well. It seems that the market is playing out just as we predicted. This was highly anticipated since it is class event-driven market-behaviour:

1. Event is announced
2. Market rallies leading up to the event
3. Market dumps closer to the event

Interestingly enough the event that was supposed to take place – never even happened. Constantinople was delayed and pushed back to the last week of February. Could we see the entire sequence of events repeat?  Afterall, the initial rally seemed to have been a carbon copy of the BCH fork rally. Let’s see how things pan out..

That being said, Ethereum was forming the perfect Head & Shoulders pattern. Erik Crown stated that it had all the right characteristics for the pattern:

1. Correct shape
2. Correct Volume characteristics
3. Correct Price Action characteristics.
4. Well defined neckline.

However, the formation began to show some hesitation & doubt when the right shoulder got extended far too much. It was followed up with a rejection of the neckline to the upside.

But the distributive price action morphed the formation into a smaller descending triangle  – which Eric discussed extensively on his daily streams. The measured move pointed to approx. $99. This seems to be playing out as we type this (Ethereum is currently sitting at $103.15)

Weekly Bitcoin Price Prediction: Summary

Overall trend remains bearish. Multiple signs point to a revisit of the weekly 200MA. In fact, price appears to be dropping even as we conclude this report. While we do believe that Bitcoin will eventually make new lows, we believe that we are likely to encounter strong support at the $3.2k region. Although, the break of the monthly 55EMA leads us to believe that BTC may break the $3.2K level on its current drive down.

Buckle Up! Its looking bumpy out there...

In this post Shawn Dexter explains why the Ethereum Constantinople Hard Fork was delayed. He states the reason for the delay and any actions you many need to take in response to the delay. Shawn also explains security vulnerability called a Reentrancy Attack and how it was also used in the DAO Attack of 2016.

This depends on whether you’re simply an investor/trader or if you’re a miner or node operator.

1. Do you need to do anything with your Ether?
   No – if you’re simply an investor, just sit tight. You do not have to do anything with your Trezor, Ledger, MyEthereumWallet (MEW).  So, watch out for scammers who may try to confuse you.

2.Do I need to upgrade my node?
    Yes – if you’re a miner or node operator you will have to upgrade to a new version of Geth or        Parity before approx. 4am Jan 17th GMT.

Quick Answer: The security vulnerability arises from the update that introduces Cheaper Cost Of Storage [EIP1283] that we discussed in our Constantinople Simple Explanation post.

The cheaper gas costs allowed for an exploit in the Smart Contracts. This particular exploit is called a “Reentrancy Attack”.

It's already in the process of being fixed. The developers hoped that they could fix it before the network upgrade, but these things need time for proper analysis. They decided to err on the side of caution and postpone the hard fork until they fully investigate the extent of the vulnerability. 

I’ll give you guys a simplified explanation. A Smart Contract may communicate with an external Smart Contract by “calling it”. If the  external Smart Contract is malicious, it may be able to  take advantage of this and take over control flow of the first Smart Contract’s code.

This allows the attacker to make unexpected changes to the first Smart Contract’s code. For example, it may repeatedly withdraw Ether from the Smart Contract by “re-entering” at a particular spot in the code. (Essentially, it makes multiple invocations of the withdrawBalance() function)

Note: It’s important to note that this security vulnerability does not exist in the current Ethereum chain.  All Smart Contracts on the current chain are Reentrancy-Safe!

The introduction of cheaper gas costs allows for the reentrancy attacks to be viable. Since Ethereum has not made any software upgrades yet, the main Ethereum chain is not at risk in any manner. In fact, even if the upgrade to Constantinople occured, only a small number of Smart Contracts would have been vulnerable.

Yes, and no.  Yes – if you were making your investing/trading decisions solely based on this event. In a previous article we warned about how unpredictable price movement can be closer to events.

But overall this is a great thing for Ethereum – and for long term investors. Catching this security vulnerability right before the network upgrade is a gift. If Constantinople went live before  and if the security vulnerability was discovered by malicious attackers, then things could got far worse!

Let’s not forget the disaster of the 2016 DAO Attack – which was actually caused by attackers exploiting code that was vulnerable to a Reentrancy Attack!

Many of you may not be aware of the DAO Attack of 2016. Attackers used a combination of two types of Reentrancy Attacks: Single Function & Cross Function.

The attackers were able to siphon 3.6 Million Ether from the DAO Smart Contract to their own accounts. Fortunately, the Ethereum community decided to Hard Fork and restored all the funds to the original Smart Contract. However, this led to a lot of controversy and led to the infamous Ethereum and Ethereum Classic network split.

Up to today, Ethereum bears the stain of the DAO controversy – albeit fading with time. It would be a disaster if it were to happen all over again.

The fact that this vulnerability was detected by a third party team – ChainSecurity – speaks to the network strength that Ethereum has built over the years. Ethereum has a global development strength that made itself a powerhouse. Multiple teams across the world are working on finding improvements, flaws & vulnerabilities. These are flaws that could sink other projects if gone undetected. The Ethereum community, on the other hand, is showing its strength.

Sure, prices may take a hit for the short-term. But like I said, it could have been far worse. In the long run, this delay will be forgotten. A security breach (and possible contentious hardfork that would follow) would never be forgotten.

It’s been a roller coaster of a weekend. Bitcoin price witnessed a sudden $200 move in both directions within a matter of hours.

Saturday started strong with Bitcoin making a quick move from the $3600 to $3775 – almost a $200 move to the upside. Could we have foreseen this move? Perhaps.

Bitcoin formed a smaller Symmetrical Triangle over the week. Eric Crown has emphasised that symmetrical triangles have an equal opportunity to break to either side.  However, in a overall bearish trend – we tend to lean toward the downside.

Surprisingly, Saturday saw Bitcoin break the smaller Symmetrical Triangle to the upside. The breakout hit the measured move perfectly. Although Eric himself leaned to the downside, he demonstrated his professional skills by responding to market action and trading the breakout perfectly.

The break to the upside had many people feeling bullish about the markets once again. But the anticipated follow up simply failed to arrive.

Instead, sellers stepped in promptly and sold heavily into the $3775 level. The price quickly retreated to $3700 which resulted in a successful rejection of the daily 21EMA break. And this was key! (we’ll discuss why in the next sections)

Sunday showed a powerful response to the rejection of the 21 EMA. With rejuvenated confidence sellers were able to push the price of Bitcoin all the way down to $3500. A $200 move to the downside this time.

Interestingly enough, the rejected 21 EMA lined up with $3700. The $3700 was also the neckline for the  3-Day M-For-Murder formation (double top) that we also discussed in the previous post.

As Krown would say: “M” stands for Murder!”. If you’re forming an M-like formation, you don’t want to break that neckline. And Bitcoin did just that when it closed a three-day candle under $3695. This neckline break has a high degree of playing out to the downside – especially on the higher time frames.

However, these formations may occasionally show a false breakout to trap people. A re-test of the neckline isn’t uncommon. But a rejection of the retest adds further probability of it playing out.

Notice the weekend rejection of the 21-EMA lined up beautifully with this neckline (as displayed in the image below).  This is very likely to increase seller confidence, as they begin to target the measured move for this break.

The measured move for this is typically the length between the neck and the top. This points to a move downward to around $3200 level area.  

And this is where things get even more interesting. We’re already seeing confluence with the Daily 21 EMA rejection and the 3-Day M-Formation rejection. These also line up perfectly with Bitcoin’s Symmetrical Triangle formation and the 200 Simple Moving Average.

The 200 Moving Average is typically a strong level that draws in a lot of attention.  It gets even stronger on the higher time-frames such as the weekly chart. Currently, BTC has been ranging between the weekly 200 Simple Moving Average and the 200 Exponential Moving average.

After breaking the 200 Exponential on its first pass, Bitcoin went on to test the  200 Simple Moving Average which proved as strong support. Bitcoin then went on to test the 200 Exponential a few times and was rejected each time. This leads us to believe that a test of the 200 Simple Moving average is imminent.

The 200 Simple Moving Average is currently sitting at the  $3250 range which has perfect confluence with:

1. M-formation breakdown
2. Symmetrical Triangle breakdown

Both of the patterns above have a measured move to the $3250 range as well. The big question now, however, is: 

Many seem to believe that we have seen the lows. However, we strongly believe that the lows are not in just yet.

Unlike most other cryptocurrencies, BTC has ample price cycle history to draw some clues from. One of the clues left behind is the Volume Signature during the 2014-2015 bear cycle.

Volume – while often misused – is one of the best ways to understand the overall crowd behaviour on a particular asset. Remember, we aren’t simply trading the indicators. Instead, we are trying to derive information about the mindset of the crowd.

Let’s take a look at the low of the 2014-2015. BTC saw a devastating weekly price drop of 45%. This was accompanied with volume doubled that of the preceding weeks of price action. Below is the 2015 BTC weekly chart:

A closer look at the current volume profile indicates low participation. What does that mean? Essentially, we aren’t seeing the same anxious/exuberant selling & buying behaviour that we saw in 2014.  Does that mean we are looking for the exact percentage drop & volume profile repeat once more? No, absolutely not.

However, the historic data does give us an idea of the behaviour we would like to see. If we see data that indicates a certain behaviour, then we may conclude that there are signs of a bottoming. As of now, however, we are not seeing any clues that point toward a bottom being in.

Do we believe that we will blow past the bottom right away? No – these things take time. In fact, Bitcoin is showing characteristics that are very reminiscent of it’s consolidation during the $6000 region. It may very well be that Bitcoin consolidates in a very similar way before finally break the $3k region.

That being said, there is one factor that may lead Bitcoin to it’s lows quicker than anticipated – Ethereum.

As mentioned in the previous report, Ethereum does seem to be leading the market. The event-driven rally was followed up with the much expected dump in price. Typical event-driven-market-behaviour:

1. Event is announced weeks in advance.
2. Price begins to rally closer to event.
3. Sell-off begins just before the event.

And this is precisely how Ethereum’s price action has played out over the past month. It rallied closer to the event date, and then the price began to reverse. Additionally, Ethereum seems to be putting together a bearish reversal pattern that points to possible new lows as well.

We typically do not like to point out a Head & Shoulders pattern prematurely – especially since it’s one of the patterns that is most often acted upon far too early. However, Ethereum has all the underpinnings of a Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern. Eric Crown agrees with the likelihood of Ethereum forming a reversal H&S pattern as well, stating:

1. Correct shape
2. Correct Volume characteristics
3. Correct Price Action characteristics.
4. Well defined neckline.

And until the neckline is broken with Volume Confirmation, we cannot call this a fully formed H&S. For now, we can say that Ethereum has all the makings of a Head & Shoulders – but it’s missing the final element: The neckline break

So what happens if we do get the neckline break? Well, this is where things get interesting (or scary, depending on your disposition) The measured move for this neckline break points to a price of approximately $70.

While this may surprise people, it’ll be prudent to remember the following points:

1. Ethereum has already visited the $80 region
2. If Bitcoin were to make new lows, it’s not far fetched to point Ethereum to new lows as well.

But again, we must emphasize that this thesis is only valid if the H&S neckline breaks. Ethereum is currently sitting at a strong support level. And If the neckline doesn’t break relatively soon, then we could possibly consider the H&S thesis invalidated

Overall trend still remains bearish, and multiple signs point to Bitcoin visiting the $3250 region. While we do believe that Bitcoin will eventually make new lows, we don’t believe that we are likely to break the $3k region just yet. However, Ethereum is putting together a bearish reversal pattern that points Ethereum to new lows. Since Ethereum has been likely leading the market recently, we wonder if it could be the impetus for Bitcoin visiting new lows as well. That being said, all of this is predicated on Ethereum breaking it’s neckline – which it hasn’t done just yet.

Interesting times ahead of us. Interesting, indeed.

Now, the question is – will it do a partial retrace or a full retrace? Ethereum is currently sitting at a key Fibonacci level 116.  This level is more likely to be supported for now. But a bounce from here may lead to an ugly H&S formation.

Bitcoin rallied to a local-high of around $4100 level. it was here when far too many people began to call an “inverted Head & shoulders” pattern. Krown, however, vehemently disagree citing the following reasons:

1. Volume characteristics were wrong
2. Descending neck line
3. Overall shape wrong

Krown cautioned against playing this move early, and warned that it could be a trap.

As the price flirted with the $4100 region, the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA began to draw close on the 4hr charts.  When the 50 EMA crosses over the 200 EMA, it is considered very bullish and is referred to as the Golden Cross.

A Golden Cross is usually followed with upward/ bullish price action.  The move playing out would have had perfect synergy with the “inverse head & shoulders”.

However, as price action unfolded on the cusp of the golden cross, BTC witnessed heavy sell pressure. This quick turn to the downside prevented the golden cross from playing out, and instead resulted in a 50 - 200EMA “Kiss”. A clear depiction of the “Kiss” is presented in the image below

Krown had  something pretty profound to say about this:
“The massive dump told you something by NOT telling you something”

When you have heavy selling coming in to avert a bullish move, you know that the big players/bots are still on the sell-side of the market. This further confirmed that the Inverse H&S was more of a trap than an actual formation. With the rejection of the Golden Cross, Bitcoin seemed to follow Ethereum’s lead and swiftly retreated to $3600.

The heavy sell-off on BTC led to a clean break of the larger Symmetrical Triangle.  Symmetrical Triangles usually could break either way Why? Because it indicates that while sellers are stepping in at lower and lower prices – buyers are also stepping in at higher and higher prices.

However, since the overall trend is still bearish, we lean toward the downside – but always wait for confirmation of the break! The move to $3600 broke downward on the symmetrical triangle with high volume. This was a clear confirmation.

As can be seen above, the Symmetrical Triangle broke to the downside. The measured move for this symmetrical triangle points toward $3250 – which is really interesting. Why? Because there are a couple of key indicators that are currently showing strong confluence with the $3250.

Lets go over them:

The 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA)  on the weekly time frame has proved itself as strong resistance. The 200 SMA plays a key role in most time frames, but even more so on higher time frames like the weekly.

On Bitcoin’s last drive down, the 200 SMA stopped it in its tracks at around $3150.  The 200 MA is now sitting at the $3260 region. Will we be seeing a retest of this moving average? Overall trend does seem down.

It’s interesting to note that Bitcoin has never closed a weekly candle below the 200 Simple Moving Average. (This doesn’t mean that it won’t happen in the future. It simply means that it’s a key level to watch for a potential bounce. Remember, there’s a first time for everything.)

While we've presented a case of a measured move playing into the $3200s level, it must be noted that price action towards $3200 level may take time to play out, and is likely to encounter resistance on the way. 

As things stand, BTC price hovers around the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $3520, followed by 0.786 Fibonacci level at $3350. Hence, while the trend remains bearish, it'd be prudent to prepare for resistance on the way.

Quick Update: As price action unfolded last night, it turns out BTC met with resistance at the 0.618 Fibb level. Lets wait and watch for what happens next.

The trend is your friend until the end of the trend – and currently, the trend is down!

So how do we know when the trend is changing? Well, before we change our stance, we will be looking at a few key indicators to flag green:

1. Make Higher High's on the daily chart
   ​So far Bitcoin has consistently been making lower highs on it’s daily chart. This is a strong indication that the trend is still down. This will be the first sign.​

2. Open and Close a weekly candle above 200 EMA

Ever since we closed a week under the 200 Exponential Moving Average, we have not been able to break above it. We’ve tested it, but always closed the candle underneath it. Until we close a candle above the 200 EMA, we will stay bearish on the market.

A break above that level will have us reconsidering and looking small opportunities to the upside.

3. A break above the Ichimoku Cloud and/or Cloud Turning Green on 1Day

The Ichimoku Cloud is one of the easiest ways to get a birds eye view of the current trend. If the cloud is red, the trend is down. If the cloud is green, the trend is up.  If the price is under the cloud, trend is down – and vice versa.

Currently, the top of the cloud is sitting at around $5000 to $5200 range.  A break above that range will show a strong indication of trend reversal.

4. A break above the $6000 level!
Finally, a breaking above the $6000 level will confirm that the trend is no longer downward. We will be overall bullish on the market and will look for opportunities accordingly.

While many people may disagree, we strongly believe that Bitcoin has not seen it’s low yet. There are multiple signals that usually indicate that a floor price has been made:

1. High Volume Buying
2. Volatility Index
3. NVT Signal

None of these signals are flashing on – which makes us lean to newer lows. We will discuss these in greater detail in the next report. But at the moment for Bitcoin our eyes are on some key levels of support:

1. $2450  zone
2. $1900 zone

When will this happen? Well, time-analysis can be tricky. These things can take time to play out. It could take weeks, or months… or it may never happen. Remember, we need to first break the $3250 zone which is being supported by the weekly 200 SMA.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Summary

Predicting price is impossible. We can only discuss what is more "probable". All it takes is one player to change everything. However, as things stand, Bitcoin looks like it wants to eventually ​trace back to the $3250 level. But since Ethereum is leading the way at the moment, we are expecting the Ethereum bounce to prop up Bitcoin as well.​​

Ethereum Price Prediction: Summary

As for Ethereum, the event-driven nature of the price action makes it rather unpredictable. It is currently sitting at a key support level of $116. And we expect a bounce here. But we also wouldn’t be surprised if it gave up all of it’s gains over the past month and revisits the $90 region.

Ethereum, so far, seems to be following the same story line. Ethereum’s hard fork - Constantinople - is scheduled   Jan 16th, 2019. This hard fork has been long awaited by the community since it delivers the Block Reward Reduction that everyone wanted.

After seeing a decline from $280 to $80, Ethereum began to rally around December 15th (almost a month prior to the fork).  The price rallied all the way up to $160 and instilled excitement in the entire crypto community. Ethereum was leading the market, and the other coins (Bitcoin included) seemed to have been following suit.

But in an almost “deja-vu” sorta way, Ethereum lurched downward exactly one week before it’s long-awaited hard fork. Within a day the price of Ether declined from $150 to $120.

Remember, BCH gave back 100% of what it gained in the seven days leading up to the fork. Now the question is: Will Ethereum also undergo the same retracement that BCH did?

Perhaps. It’s key to note, however, that the BCH rally spanned only one week. The Ethereum rally, on the other hand, spanned almost a month. Usually, these things come down as fast as they went up. So Ethereum may take a bit longer to see the same retracement.

  Things come down as fast as they went up!

That being said – all it takes is one big player to change things.  A big player with a large enough sell order can cause a quick retracement to the downside. Similarly, another big player with a large enough buy order can cause a real market turn around to the upside.

Yeah, I get it - this is probably not helpful. But this a probability game – and nothing is for certain. If you’re trading (or ‘investing’) in this market, you need to come to terms with that.

However, if you’re thinking about being a buyer at these prices there’s one more thing I’d like to discuss.

Bitcoin was sitting around it’s major $6000 support at the time of the BCH fork event. Leading up to the event, bitcoin saw itself rally to $6500. Again, this instilled a lot of hope in the market. But the Bitcoin Cash dump seemed to have led the way for the rest of the market as well. Bitcoin was rejected at $6500, and went on to break the key $6000 level that it was being supported at for a long time.

The Bitcoin Cash fork & dump seemed to have been the impetus for the major 6k break. Today the major level everyone is eyeing is the $3000-$3200 region.

Will the Ethereum fork prove to be next impetus for the major break? It will be interesting to see how things play out .

Until then, just remember: The Trend Is Your Friend. Going against the trend is like trying skiing uphill. Protect yourself.

(None of this is financial advice.)

A “fork” is simply when the blockchain undergoes a software update. The fork may require all participants (primarily nodes & miners) to update their software to be part of the same network. This is because the software update is not compatible with the older version. This is called a “hard fork”

A contentious fork is when participants do not agree with software updates. In this case, they may choose to either stay with the old software or implement their own updates. Essentially, they choose to go their own way because they don’t agree with the direction of the core team (yay, democracy!)  This causes a “fork” in the original chain, and two new chains will begin to exist independent of each other.

Fortunately, Constantinople is not a contentious fork. Everyone (for the most part) is on the same page with the proposed software updates on the Ethereum Blockchain. So what are the updates? In the next section I will provide a simple overview of the Ethereum Constantinople 2019 Hard fork!

The Ethereum Constantinople 2019 hard fork marks an important milestone in Ethereum’s transition from Proof of Work to Proof Of Stake (Casper).

As mentioned in the previous section, the Constantinople hard fork is simply a software update. The software update will have improvements that have been accepted by the community. These improvements were proposed ahead of time and are simply called “Ethereum Improvement Proposals” (EIP).  There are five of these Ethereum Improvement Proposals that will be included in the Constantinople Update for Jan 16th 2019.

This is the big one that everyone was waiting for all of 2018. The update falls under the EIP1234 proposal and will have two major changes:

1. Block Reward Reduction
2. Delaying The Difficulty Bomb

I explain both of these in more detail (with simple analogies) in this post, but I’ll go over them quickly here as well.

Difficulty Bomb:  Miners are issued rewards each time they successfully add a new block onto the chain. The Difficulty Bomb is a tool within the EVM that the developers can use to adjust how difficult it is for the miners to do this.  If the bomb “detonates”, it will get exponentially harder everyday for miners to find blocks. This was put in place to incentivise miners to transition from the Proof Of Work Chain to the Proof Of Stake Chain.

1. Ethereum is not moving to Casper just yet - so there’s no reason to incentivise the miners to stop mining here just yet.

2. The inflation rate has already been reduced by decreasing the issuance rate.

While Constantinople brings about a reduction in miner block rewards (EIP 1234), it must be noted that the hard fork is not a Contentious Fork.  All 5 EIPs within Constantinople gained majority approval across the Ethereum community as a whole, thus will not result in two coins after the hard fork on January 16, 2019.

Shiller akins a bubble to that of an epidemic virus – something that can “catch” and get out of control very easily. Similar to their virus counterparts, speculative epidemics can result in massive losses when culminated with doubt, fear and anxiety.

But the key question here is: Are we already past the irrational anxiety?  Or is it yet to play out?

Related Readings:

The Myth Of The Rational Market - A history of risk, reward & delusion by Justin Fox

Irrational Exuberance by Robert J Shiller

Get Em For Free!

You can get both of these books for free on Scribd:  Simply use my invite link.

You will get free unlimited access to all their audiobooks & eBooks for two months. Simply cancel after the second month. 😉

 With Ethereum's Constantinople update coming up on  January 16th 2019, there have been an increasing number of questions regarding Ethereum's "Difficulty Bomb".  Most other explanations out there are either far too complex are simply wrong. 

Ethereum Difficulty Bomb: The Simple ​Explanation

The Ethereum Difficulty Bomb simply refers to a tool within Ethereum. This tool allows the core Ethereum developers to adjust how difficulty it is for a miner to win a reward. ​Miners win rewards each time they create a new block and add it to the blockchain.  

When the Ethereum Difficulty Bomb is set to "detonate", it will get exponentially difficult for miners to win rewards via mining. But why would the developers want this? Because eventually they will want miners to stop mining and start validating. Remember, Ethereum is set to transition from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake. There is no mining in Proof Of Stake. We will have validators instead.

Ethereum Difficulty Bomb: A Dis-Incentive For Miners

Even though Ethereum may switch to the Proof of Stake chain, the miners may  continue mining on the Proof Of Work chain if not properly incentivised. In order to avoid security issues (like a fork), the developers wanted to give the miners a little "nudge" to switch to Proof Of Stake. The Ethereum's Difficulty Bomb would reduce their rewards on the Proof Of Work chain, and thus incentivise them to switch to the Proof Of Stake Chain.

Why Was The Ethereum Difficulty Bomb Delayed?

Unfortunately, the network upgrade to Proof Of Stake was delayed. And the entire point of the Difficulty Bomb was to incentivise miners to switch to Proof of Stake. So the Ethereum team decided to delay the difficulty bomb until Casper was ready.

Ethereum Inflation Rate & Difficulty Bomb

The delay, however, did not sit well with long term investors. Long term investors were looking forward to the difficulty bomb (and Proof of Stake). Why? Because lower Block Rewards would mean a lower Inflation Rate. This was going to be a very bullish update for long-term investors.

To understand this fully, let me quickly explain Ethereum's Inflation Rate. We will then discuss how the difficulty bomb & block rewards relate to it! Don't worry – I'll keep it super simple 😉

The past year has seen a back and forth debate between the miners and the rest of the community . The debate was about the current inflation rate in the Ethereum ecosystem. Essentially, the community wanted a reduction in the Ethereum Inflation Rate.

Ethereum Inflation Rate Definition (Quick'n'Dirty)
 The speed at which each Ether loses it's purchasing power/value. 

There are two ways the core-developers can decrease the inflation rate in Ethereum:

1. Add A Difficulty Bomb in Ethereum
2. Decrease the Ether Issuance to Ethereum Miners

The Difficulty Bomb is sort of a "tool" within the Ethereum consensus algorithm. It allows the core devs to elegantly adjust how difficulty it is to create a new block. For example, the Difficulty Bomb can be set to "detonate" at a particular time-period. Upon detonation, it would get exponentially more difficult to mine a block as the days passed (more on why later).

However, to understand the Difficulty Bomb and it's implications – we need to first understand how blocks are actually created. It's actually quite simple. Let's go over it quickly:

Each time you send a transaction on the Ethereum Network, it is being broadcasted to the Ethereum Miners. Ethereum Miners pick up your transaction along with a bunch of other transactions – and  put it into a "block".

But that's not the hard part. The hard part is getting the block approved by the rest of the network as "Valid".

To understand this bit, let's use my Lock & Key Analogy

Each miner needs lock the block before submitting it to the network. However, in order to "lock" the block, they need to find the key. A block is not deemed valid by the rest of the network until the minder "finds the key". (This is why you will find people using the phrase "finding a block".) 

(Note: This is a simplified explanation. You can find my simple explanation on the PoW Puzzle here)

​Once the key is found, the block will be added to the main Ethereum blockchain.  The miner who "found the block" will get a reward issued to him.

The time in takes to find a block is known as the Block Time.

In Ethereum, we don't want either of the two extremes. Of course, taking forever to find a block is not good. But, nor will finding it too soon. We want the time to be...just right. Like Goldilocks & her soup.

Fortunately, Ethereum can adjust the average time it takes miners to find a block. It can be adjusted to either decrease the block-time or increase the block time. 

Why is it called the "difficulty bomb". Because Ethereum will make it more difficult to find the needle in the haystack. Another way to look at it is this:

We will discuss how this is adjusted in another post. For now, this is all you need to know 🙂