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Ethereum Price Update 2019

By Shawn Dexter / January 12, 2019

In this post Shawn provides us a brief overview on the Ethereum Price Update for the beginning of 2019. He discusses Ethereum's rally and the sell off that ensued.

DISCLAIMER​: This ideas presented in this article should not be taken for investment advice, and are simply the views and opinions of the author 

Ethereum Price Rallies

The final quarter of 2018 was looking pretty grim for Ethereum. Between early September and mid December the price of Ether saw a decline from $280 to as low as $80.  Suddenly, however, Ethereum seem to have found new vigor and the price recovered to $160. This instilled a lot of new hope (and fomo?) in several people.

But just when price action took a turn for the better, Ether took another lurch downward back to $120. A lot of people who got bullish at the $150-$160 area saw staggering losses. The question is… Could this have been foreseen?

Perhaps.  There were a few red flags right from the beginning. In this weeks Ethereum Price Update we’ll go over some of the signs that pointed toward this move potentially playing out.

Ethereum’s Similarities to BCH

On November 14th 2018, Bitcoin Cash was to undergo a hard fork – a big event in the crypto world. Two weeks prior to the event, Bitcoin Cash began to rally. The price surged upward from around $410 to $630.  However, seven days before the actual date of the event – the price began to decline. And it do so rapidly! In the next seven days leading up to the event, Bitcoin Cash dropped all the way back down to $410. It literally gave back all it’s gains.

Ethereum, so far, seems to be following the same story line. Ethereum’s hard fork - Constantinople - is scheduled   Jan 16th, 2019. This hard fork has been long awaited by the community since it delivers the Block Reward Reduction that everyone wanted.

After seeing a decline from $280 to $80, Ethereum began to rally around December 15th (almost a month prior to the fork).  The price rallied all the way up to $160 and instilled excitement in the entire crypto community. Ethereum was leading the market, and the other coins (Bitcoin included) seemed to have been following suit.

But in an almost “deja-vu” sorta way, Ethereum lurched downward exactly one week before it’s long-awaited hard fork. Within a day the price of Ether declined from $150 to $120.

Apples to Apples: Events to Events

Now, a lot of people are going to say “No!  the Bitcoin Cash fork was contentious! The Ethereum fork is a bullish update!”

The truth is that it doesn’t matter what the event actually was. All that matters is the crowd-psychology and the emotions people go through leading up to the event. For example, these are a couple of possible mindsets:

Bitcoin Cash Fork:  “Omg, this is my chance to get free coins! I’ll buy and sell right after the fork”

Ethereum Fork: “Omg, this update is so bullish. I’ll buy before the update and sell when things get crazy!”

In both situations, ‘investors’ are being baited to buy the top – and then inevitably get dumped on.

Ethereum’s Retracement

Remember, BCH gave back 100% of what it gained in the seven days leading up to the fork. Now the question is: Will Ethereum also undergo the same retracement that BCH did?

Perhaps. It’s key to note, however, that the BCH rally spanned only one week. The Ethereum rally, on the other hand, spanned almost a month. Usually, these things come down as fast as they went up. So Ethereum may take a bit longer to see the same retracement.

  Things come down as fast as they went up!

That being said – all it takes is one big player to change things.  A big player with a large enough sell order can cause a quick retracement to the downside. Similarly, another big player with a large enough buy order can cause a real market turn around to the upside.

Yeah, I get it - this is probably not helpful. But this a probability game – and nothing is for certain. If you’re trading (or ‘investing’) in this market, you need to come to terms with that.

However, if you’re thinking about being a buyer at these prices there’s one more thing I’d like to discuss.

The Impetus to the Big Dump at 6k

Bitcoin was sitting around it’s major $6000 support at the time of the BCH fork event. Leading up to the event, bitcoin saw itself rally to $6500. Again, this instilled a lot of hope in the market. But the Bitcoin Cash dump seemed to have led the way for the rest of the market as well. Bitcoin was rejected at $6500, and went on to break the key $6000 level that it was being supported at for a long time.

The Bitcoin Cash fork & dump seemed to have been the impetus for the major 6k break. Today the major level everyone is eyeing is the $3000-$3200 region.

Will the Ethereum fork prove to be next impetus for the major break? It will be interesting to see how things play out .

Until then, just remember: The Trend Is Your Friend. Going against the trend is like trying skiing uphill. Protect yourself.

(None of this is financial advice.)

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Ethereum Update 2019: Constantinople Hard Fork

Introduction

In a previous post we discussed the Ethereum Roadmap for the coming year. One of the key milestones on the roadmap update was the Constantinople hard fork. Constantinople was initially scheduled for 2018. However, due to inevitable software development delays, Constantinople was pushed to early 2019. That being said, the wait has definitely been worth it.

Ethereum Roadmap 2019

Ethereum Roadmap: Byzantium, Constantinople, Serenity

Constantinople has been much awaited by the community primarily because of the Block Reward reduction. The Block Reward reduction effectively reduces the inflation rate of Ethereum. I explain how in a simply post here: Ethereum Inflation Rate & Difficulty Bomb  However, aside from the Block Reward reduction, there are few other exciting improvement updates in Constantinople which is scheduled for Jan 16th 2019.

In this post I will explain these updates simply and briefly! 🙂

Ethereum Constantinople: What Is It?

So what exactly is Constantinople? Is it a Hard fork? If so, will you be getting two coins? (like all the other hard fork fiascos?)  Yes, Constantinople is a Hard fork - but you won’t be getting two coins. Unlike the other fiascos, this isn’t a “contentious” fork. To understand this, let’s go over a couple of terms quickly & simply:

What is a “Hard Fork”?

A “fork” is simply when the blockchain undergoes a software update. The fork may require all participants (primarily nodes & miners) to update their software to be part of the same network. This is because the software update is not compatible with the older version. This is called a “hard fork”

What is a “Contentious Fork”?

A contentious fork is when participants do not agree with software updates. In this case, they may choose to either stay with the old software or implement their own updates. Essentially, they choose to go their own way because they don’t agree with the direction of the core team (yay, democracy!)  This causes a “fork” in the original chain, and two new chains will begin to exist independent of each other.

Constantinople: Not A Contentious Fork

Fortunately, Constantinople is not a contentious fork. Everyone (for the most part) is on the same page with the proposed software updates on the Ethereum Blockchain. So what are the updates? In the next section I will provide a simple overview of the Ethereum Constantinople 2019 Hard fork!

Constantinople:  A Quick Overview

The Ethereum Constantinople 2019 hard fork marks an important milestone in Ethereum’s transition from Proof of Work to Proof Of Stake (Casper).

As mentioned in the previous section, the Constantinople hard fork is simply a software update. The software update will have improvements that have been accepted by the community. These improvements were proposed ahead of time and are simply called “Ethereum Improvement Proposals” (EIP).  There are five of these Ethereum Improvement Proposals that will be included in the Constantinople Update for Jan 16th 2019.

Ethereum Constantinople Update 2019

Ethereum Constantinople: EIP1234, EIP145, EIP1052, EIP1014, EIP1283

Performance Improvements:

  1. Block Reward Reduction ← A BIG ONE!

  2. Cheaper Smart Contract Execution

  3. Increased Efficiency on Verification of External Smart Contracts

  4. State Channels!

  5. Storage Cost Improvements

[EIP 1234] Block Reward Reduction: “The Thirdening”

This is the big one that everyone was waiting for all of 2018. The update falls under the EIP1234 proposal and will have two major changes:

  1. Block Reward Reduction
  2. Delaying The Difficulty Bomb

I explain both of these in more detail (with simple analogies) in this post, but I’ll go over them quickly here as well.

Ethereum-inflation-rate

Block Reward Reduction: Constantinople will officially mark the reduction of the rewards issued to miners from 3 ether to 2 ether. This effectively reduces miner rewards by ⅓  and is often referred to as “The Thirdening“. This reduction in Block Rewards will significantly reduce the inflation rate of Ethereum.

Ethereum Inflation Rate Definition (Quick'n'Dirty)
 The speed at which each Ether loses it's purchasing power/value.

Difficulty Bomb:  Miners are issued rewards each time they successfully add a new block onto the chain. The Difficulty Bomb is a tool within the EVM that the developers can use to adjust how difficult it is for the miners to do this.  If the bomb “detonates”, it will get exponentially harder everyday for miners to find blocks. This was put in place to incentivise miners to transition from the Proof Of Work Chain to the Proof Of Stake Chain.

So why delay? Well, two reasons:

  1. Ethereum is not moving to Casper just yet - so there’s no reason to incentivise the miners to stop mining here just yet.

  2. The inflation rate has already been reduced by decreasing the issuance rate.

[EIP145] Cheaper Smart Contract Execution: 

Constantinople will include the EIP145 proposal which will introduce “Shifting operators” to the Ethereum Virtual Machine. Put simply, this will allow Smart Contracts to initiate certain instructions for only 3 GAS compared to the 35 GAS it would have costed without the Shifting Operators.

This is a drastic reduction in the cost of these operations and contributes to Ethereum’s efficiency improvements.

[EIP1052] Increased Efficiency on Verification of External Smart Contracts

This is another key efficiency improvement in the 2019 Constantinople update. Smart Contracts often need to perform verification checks on other Smart Contracts. Currently this is done by copying the bytecode of the external Smart Contract and then performing the needed verification. However, this can unnecessarily expensive when dealing with large Smart Contracts.  EIP 1052 tackles this problem by introducing a new function that will allow the Smart Contract to pull a hash of the bytecode instead.  This will make verifications far more efficient.

[EIP1014] State Channels!

The Ethereum Constantinople 2019 Update will also include a keystone update for State Channels in Ethereum. EIP 1014 will allow interactions be made with addresses on the main chain that don’t exist yet .  This may sound confusing but is a key milestone for the implementation of State Channels. The goal of State Channels is to have as little load on the main chain as possible while still remaining secure. Unnecessary calculations and processes will take place off chain – thereby increasing the efficiency of the main Ethereum chain.

[EIP1283] Cheaper Cost Of Storage

Constantinople will also include an update that will reduce the storage costs in Ethereum. EIP 1283  proposes a change to how gas is charged for EVM storage operations. The primary initiative of this proposal is to reduce excessive gas costs where unwarranted. And to enable new use-cases for contract storage.

With this, transactions that are making multiple updates to the same storage slot will cost significantly less!

Ethereum Constantinople Update 2019: Conclusion

Ethereum’s soon approaching Constantinople hard fork, while significant, is still only a piece of the larger puzzle that is Serenity – Ethereum’s transition to Proof of Stake. 

Ethereum Casper Release Date Updated 2018 - Infographic & Illustration

Updated Ethereum Casper Release Dates (2018 Estimates]

While Constantinople brings about a reduction in miner block rewards (EIP 1234), it must be noted that the hard fork is not a Contentious Fork.  All 5 EIPs within Constantinople gained majority approval across the Ethereum community as a whole, thus will not result in two coins after the hard fork on January 16, 2019.

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Radix Coin – Relatively Stable, Infinitely Scalable

In this post Shawn breaks down the Radix Coin (RDX) as a stable and scalable cryptocurrency. He discusses Radixs' novel economic approach to solving the pain point of crypto price stability for consumers and businesses.

Radix Coin – An Intensively Scalable & Stable CryptoCurrency

Radix DLT is beginning to garner increasing attention in the crypto-space. Radix rose from an obscure and exotic "coin" in 2017 to one of the most discussed technologies in 2018. Every week, I receive several questions on Radix’s Scalability & Sharding or on their Tempo Consensus Method.  But one of the more common questions goes something like this:

"Hey, what are your thoughts on the Radix Coin ? "

It recently dawned upon me that while I’ve discussed Radix’s infrastructure, I haven’t really delved into the “Radix Coin”.  While Radix does indeed sport a crypto coin, it is so much more than that. Radix DLT is a fully fledged distributed ledger technology platform. The platform will feature decentralised applications, mass scalability, and of course, the Radix Coin as well – 'RDX'.

In this post, however, we focus our discussion on the Radix Coin (RDX) and its purpose in revolutionizing the digital economy. If you’re interested in the Radix  DLT Infrastructure – mainly its Consensus and Sharding approach, then you can read the following introductory & simple explanations:

The following sections will discuss how the Radix Coin will serve and benefit from the Radix DLT infrastructure.

Radix (RDX) As A Stable Coin

The Radix Coin will be the token used on the Radix DLT platform to fuel various operations. However, the coin and the platform have special features that make the dynamic rather interesting. The Radix coin will be a relatively stable coin. Notice the word "relatively" – this is key. Several people mistaken the Radix Coin to be a stable coin. This can lead to confusion – especially for interested investors. 

Radix DLT designed the RDX token so as to have low-volatility. In that vein, the Radix Coin will initially be pegged against the US Dollar where 1 Radix Coin will be equivalent to $1 USD. However, after a certain period, the price of the Radix coin will float free.  Low-volatility and relative stability will be maintained by increasing the supply of the coins. 

“Wait, what the… what do you mean by ‘increasing’ supply of the coins? “

Don’t worry – we’re not talking about ‘Supply inflation’ here. Radix DLT will be using an algorithmic model that will monitor demand and accordingly increase as well as decrease the total supply of the Radix Coin at regular periods. The low volatility of the Radix Coin will help facilitate mass adoption. And the flexible supply should satisfy investor needs as well.

In the following sections, we will discuss how investors and merchants both benefit from this flexible supply system.

Radix Coin for Investors - Should Investors Worry?

Upon first hearing “stable coin”, cryptocurrency investors are immediately skeptical. After all, why invest in something if it’s going to be stable in value? This is an understandable concern since we’re conditioned to the volatility of cryptocurrencies. The Radix Coin, however, functions sort of like a Bond with a variable interest rate.  The value of each Radix Coin may not rise and fall substantially. But the investor will receive more RDX at regular intervals which should increase his total amount of RDX.

For example, let’s say John has  2000 RDX. At the time, each RDX is valued at around $1.10.

  • No. of RDX: 2000   
  • Value of each RDX:  $1.10
  • Total Value: $2200

In the coming months/years, the demand for the Radix Coin skyrockets! Now, each of John’s RDX will not increase drastically in value. Instead, the total number of RDX he has will increase.  His total Radix Coins will increase to 6000 RDX and each RDX will be worth $1.15 (Remember – the Radix Coin will be relatively stable.)

  • No. of RDX: 6000  
  • Value of each RDX:  $1.15
  • Total Value: $6900

Note: This is just an example – as details on the calculations have yet to be released.

On the flip side – if the demand for the Radix Coin reduces, the platform has mechanisms in place that will perform a token-burn process to reduce the total supply of the Radix Coin. Again, details on how this process is yet to be revealed. We will all have to wait for the economic white paper that should be released closer to their mainnet launch.

However, we can rest assured that investors don’t have to worry about their investments being “stale”.

Radix Coin for Mass Adoption

Relative Price Stability

One of the biggest reasons the Radix Coin features relative stability is to facilitate mass adoption. Without stability, mass adoption across the world will be near impossible.

As things stand, the general public find it troublesome to hold cryptocurrencies for anything other than a speculative investment. You may hear increasingly more reports of merchants accepting cryptocurrencies as a form of payment. However, most of these merchants are immediately converting their cryptocurrency back into regular FIAT.  Why? Well, simply because merchants need to be able to rely on their revenue holding value in the months that follow. Cryptocurrencies are far too volatile to offer the level of reliability that merchants need in order to run an efficient and sustaining business.

Similarly, regular consumers will only hold a fraction of their purchasing power in cryptocurrencies for similar reasons. With the current state of the market, it’s a serious gamble to rely solely on your holdings of cryptocurrencies to pay your rent or mortgage. The Radix coin will safeguard against violent price swings using an elastic-supply. This will allow merchants and consumers to hold their Radix Coins with reduced risk.

Decentralized Transaction Scalability

Scalability has been one of the biggest limitations of current blockchain solutions. Most DLT consensus models have to make the tradeoff between throughput and decentralization. Radix, however, achieves high throughput, security and decentralization using a unique approach to Sharding along with their Consensus Method – Tempo .   The Radix DLT platform ensures that every single device can be part of the network and use the Radix Coin to transact with high speed across the globe.

Radix Coin - Conclusion

With "Stable Coins", like the Radix Coin, being the latest talk of the town, its no surprise that investors and enthusiasts alike are blazing with questions on how to seize opportunity on this relatively new crypto class.

The concept of price stability around the radix coin will be primarily based on elastic supply. Depending on the demand of RDX, there will either be a coin issuance to each RDX holder, or a coin burn. While much of the economic structure behind the Radix coin is yet to be unveiled, their scaling solution - Radix Sharding & Tempo Consensus – has been fully implemented and tested. 

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Ethereum Casper V2: Beacon Chain & Sharding Explained Simply

In this post Shawn breaks down the Ethereum Casper V2 update. He discusses ethereum's transition to Proof of Stake, and how beacon chain fits into ethereum sharding.

Casper V2: Beacon Chain , PoS , Sharding

There’s been a great deal of confusion in regard to Ethereum’s new approach to Casper. Part of the confusion stems from the updated timeline for Ethereum’s PoS (proof of stake). And the other part of the confusion stems from this new “Beacon Chain” thingy.  Yes, I said ‘thingy’.

So, in this post I’m going to try to break things down in an easy manner for you guys. What exactly is the Beacon chain? And what role does it play in Proof Of Stake and Sharding

As usual, I’ll keep it simple – and avoid the unnecessary details.

Ethereum: The Initial Roadmap

Before we go any further, allow me to break down the structure of Ethereum’s Casper V2.  There will be three chains that we are concerned with:

  1. The Ethereum PoW Chain
  2. The Beacon Chain
  3. The Sharding Chain(s).

All three of which will be linked together in Casper V2.

Ethereum Casper: 3 Types of Chains

Ethereum PoW Chain

This is the chain that Ethereum is currently using. It’s using the traditional Proof Of Work (PoW) consensus method. In Ethereum’s Proof Of Work chain, miners currently validate blocks by running the PoW Cryptographic Puzzle.

However, Ethereum will be using Proof Of Stake in Casper. Miners will have to transition to the Proof of Stake chain if they want to keep validating blocks for the Ethereum Network.  To do so, they will have to deposit 32 Ether into the Beacon Chain. Once they do that, they will become Validators on the Beacon Chain.

Important:  Miners are not the only ones who can become validators. Anyone can deposit 32 Ether from the Ethereum PoW Chain to the Beacon chain to become a validator

Ethereum Casper: PoW to PoS

The Beacon Chain

Alright, so the Beacon Chain is where all the confusion stems from. But it’s actually quite simple. The Beacon Chain serves two primary roles

  1. The main Proof Of Stake chain

  2. The base layer of the Sharding solution


  3. To Simplify: The Beacon Chain will link to the Shard Chains and “signal” which blocks from the Shards should be added onto the main chain. The main chain will be validated & finalized using Proof Of Stake. The main chain also resides on the Beacon Chain. The Beacon Chain will also play a crucial role with the Shard Chains. It links up to the Shard Chains to listen for blocks that will be included onto the beacon chain (the PoS chain).

The Sharding Chain(s)

Yes, there are going to be multiple Shard Chains. Remember, Sharding is an attempt to avoid having “every single node validate every single transaction”. This will allow for more scalability.  In order to do so, instead of having one single chain, we will have multiple shard chains. I explain Sharding in more detail in this article: Ethereum Sharding Explained Using An Analogy.

Essentially, you can think of the Shard Chain as a group/block of multiple chains. All the transactions will take place on these Shard Chains – and will be split between each shard.  The account data will also be stored on these shard chains.

Above, I mentioned the Beacon Chain links up to a Shard. Well, there’s also a link from the Shards to the Beacon chain. This link needs to be attested/signed-off by a sub-group of Validators that will be pseudo-randomly picked.

Ethereum Casper: PoW to PoS

Ethereum Casper: Validators vs Miners

Casper will be using Proof Of Stake which does not require “mining” to validate blocks. If a miner wants to continue validating blocks on Casper, he will have to deposit 32 Ether into the Beacon Chain like everybody else.

Once 32 Ether is deposited, the person will go into the “Queued Validator” pool and eventually get added to the “Active Validator” pool. Active Validators will be responsible for producing blocks, sign off on blocks and sign off on links (to shards).

Why “Beacon Chain”?

You may be wondering why the Ethereum team chose the term “Beacon Chain?”.  The Beacon Chain was originally only part of the Sharding spec. It’s role was (and still is)  to link up to Shard Chains and signal which blocks should be added to the main chain. 

The Validators utilize the crosslinks between the two chains to “listen” for new blocks on the shard chains. They then sign off on the block and the crosslink if it is to be included on the main chain.

Beacon essentially means “Lighthouse/signal” – and that’s precisely what the role that the Beacon Chain serves.

Disclaimer: I’m sort of taking an educated-guess at this one. To be honest, a lot of the terminology in Sharding & Casper PoS is sorta...confusing (e.g: proposer, collator, validator, committee...come on Vitalik!)

Conclusion

As you can see, the Beacon Chain in the new Casper implementation isn't all that complicated. All you need to know is that it will serve as the foundation for the Proof Of Stake and facilitate the communication via the Shard Chains (via cross-links).  You can become a Validator on the Beacon Chain if you deposit 32 Ether from the current PoW Chain. Once you do that, you can take part in the Proof Of Stake consensus process as well. ValidationFinality  will take place on the Beacon Chain. Transactions & Account Data will be on the Shard Chain.

Simple, eh? Tbh, maybe all you need to read is the conclusion of this post. Damn. Oh well.

Follow up Reads:
1. Casper Roadmap Update Explained
2. ​Ethereum Sharding - A Simple Analogy
3. Finality: Understanding Settlement & Finality

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