Good question, Juan. This is actually a common misunderstanding. But before I answer you, let’s quickly explain the double spending problem for the readers who may be unfamiliar with it.

As you can see, the expected dates for Ethereum PoS (test & release) is somewhere in mid 2019. The exact date for Ethereum's Casper Proof Of Stake is uncertain. If you are an ETH investor or interested in investing, I suggest you read up on the events leading up to these delays. In the next section I explain transition from the Initial Ethereum Roadmap and the Updated Ethereum Roadmap with Casper Version 2.

First, let’s quickly go over what the road map was supposed to be last year. Again, I’m going to keep this simple.

As of last year, the roadmap included two major milestones: Metropolis & Serenity

Both of these milestones were efforts to move towards eventual scalability with Proof Of Stake & Sharding. 

Phase 1: Byzantine
The Byzantium update would bring privacy improvements. It took place on the Ethereum chain last year.  

Phase 2: Constantinople  
PoW/PoS Hybrid (Casper FFG) and more.  Constantinople was supposed to happen earlier this year. But all priorities were shifted to rolling out Proof Of Stake & Sharding as soon as possible.

Up until June 2018, Constantinople’s Casper FFG was still in play. However, that plan is now being dropped as well – for something more clean and efficient. This brings us to the new release-date milestone on the Ethereum Roadmap for 2018:  Casper V2

The initial plan was to transition to Proof Of Stake with Casper FFG. Casper 2.0 was to be a Smart Contract that allowed you to become a validator with a deposit of 1500 ETH. The Ethereum estimated this release date to be somewhere in 2018.

Proof Of Stake was to be implemented first and the team would roll out Sharding after. There were separate deposit pools for Sharding and Casper.  

To Summarise:

1. Casper FFG to be a Hybrid PoS and PoW chain
2. 1500 Ether deposit required to become a validator
3. Casper rolled out first, Sharding rolled out after

Due to some misleading posts and misunderstood comments, several people are confused. These are the two primary impressions that people have in regard to the Casper update:

1. Casper and Sharding will be combined and launched together.
2. Sharding will now be prioritized over Proof Of Stake

This is not true at all. And it’s important that expectations are set right.

The plan for Casper FFG requiring 1500 ETH deposits will be scrapped.  Casper V2 will be implementing a “beacon chain” – onto which Casper and Sharding will be merged (here is where people get confused).

This does not mean that Casper and Sharding will be launched on the beacon chain together. It simply means that Casper and Sharding will be implemented on the same chain.  So, Casper could come first, and Sharding be implemented much later. Or vice-versa. 

So to summarise:

1. A Beacon Chain that will be used for both: Casper & PoS validators

2. Sharding and Casper will be worked on concurrently – they are independent efforts

3. Only 32 Ether minimum staking deposits

The beacon chain was originally supposed to be used only for the Sharding implementation.

The Casper V2 Ethereum Update has been confusing a lot of people. I don’t blame you guys – the information has been all over the place. But maybe this analogy will help:

Think of the Casper and Sharding as two cars going to a family picnic. To get there, both cars have to merge onto Highway 10. We’re not sure which car will merge on first. We simply know that:

1. Both cars are headed there (Casper and Sharding are the two cars)
2. Both need the Highway to get there efficiently (Beacon chain)
3. Everyone needs to eventually get to the family picnic (scalability)

Similarly, Casper and Sharding are two independent projects – either could be completed first.This unified approach will allow for a minimum staking requirement of 32 ETH deposits.

Casper will most likely be launched first, but we can’t rule out the possibility of Sharding going faster.

Ethereum's release date for Casper FFG was scheduled for 2018. However, the new version of Casper will have a release date somewhere in 2019-2021. Yes, the rather timeline for release is vague, but there's good reason for that. Let's recap quickly:

As mentioned, the initial plan was to roll out Casper FFG as a hybrid PoS/PoW. Casper FFG would have Proof of Stake (PoS) but would not have Sharding. With the PoS release, Validators would be allowed to deposit ETH in order to stake. However, they would require to 1500 ETH in order to participate in the PoS consensus. This wasn't ideal because it would entail a lot of centralisation.

In 2018,  the need for scaling became increasingly urgent. The Ethereum team shifted all focus to the key releases that would move the needle toward scalability; namely, the PoS release and Sharding release.  Casper FFG was to be the first PoS release, but would still use the PoW chain. This release date was estimated to be somewhere in 2018. The team was to release Sharding after PoS.

Casper FFG allow Ethereum to release a PoS quicker. However, it would entail "double work". Since Ethereum would have to eventually release/migrate to a pure PoS chain. Because of this, they decided to scrap working on Casper FFG. They will now be working toward releasing Casper V2 – which will have PoS on the beacon chain as well. Since Sharding will be implemented on the beacon chain as well, it allows Ethereum to have a unified approach for their releases.

Unfortunately, this  pushes back the release date for Ethereum Casper V2 to around 2019-2020. Sharding will be released on the same beacon chain that will be used by the PoS release. This does not imply that Casper and PoS are coming together.  I would estimate it's release date to be in 2021. But there's a possibility that it may beat the PoS to the release finish-line. 

Related Posts:
1. Ethereum ​Casper V2: All You Need To Know
2. Ethereum Sharding Explained Simply

The final quarter of 2018 was looking pretty grim for Ethereum. Between early September and mid December the price of Ether saw a decline from $280 to as low as $80.  Suddenly, however, Ethereum seem to have found new vigor and the price recovered to $160. This instilled a lot of new hope (and fomo?) in several people.

But just when price action took a turn for the better, Ether took another lurch downward back to $120. A lot of people who got bullish at the $150-$160 area saw staggering losses. The question is… Could this have been foreseen?

Perhaps.  There were a few red flags right from the beginning. In this weeks Ethereum Price Update we’ll go over some of the signs that pointed toward this move potentially playing out.

On November 14th 2018, Bitcoin Cash was to undergo a hard fork – a big event in the crypto world. Two weeks prior to the event, Bitcoin Cash began to rally. The price surged upward from around $410 to $630.  However, seven days before the actual date of the event – the price began to decline. And it do so rapidly! In the next seven days leading up to the event, Bitcoin Cash dropped all the way back down to $410. It literally gave back all it’s gains.

Now, a lot of people are going to say “No!  the Bitcoin Cash fork was contentious! The Ethereum fork is a bullish update!”

The truth is that it doesn’t matter what the event actually was. All that matters is the crowd-psychology and the emotions people go through leading up to the event. For example, these are a couple of possible mindsets:

Bitcoin Cash Fork:  “Omg, this is my chance to get free coins! I’ll buy and sell right after the fork”

Ethereum Fork: “Omg, this update is so bullish. I’ll buy before the update and sell when things get crazy!”

In both situations, ‘investors’ are being baited to buy the top – and then inevitably get dumped on.

Follow up Reads:
1. Ethereum Consatantinople Update 2019
2. Ethereum Roadmap Update
3. Ethereum Difficulty Bomb & Inflation Rate Explained

In a previous post we discussed the Ethereum Roadmap for the coming year. One of the key milestones on the roadmap update was the Constantinople hard fork. Constantinople was initially scheduled for 2018. However, due to inevitable software development delays, Constantinople was pushed to early 2019. That being said, the wait has definitely been worth it.

Constantinople has been much awaited by the community primarily because of the Block Reward reduction. The Block Reward reduction effectively reduces the inflation rate of Ethereum. I explain how in a simply post here: Ethereum Inflation Rate & Difficulty Bomb  However, aside from the Block Reward reduction, there are few other exciting improvement updates in Constantinople which is scheduled for Jan 16th 2019.

In this post I will explain these updates simply and briefly! 🙂

So what exactly is Constantinople? Is it a Hard fork? If so, will you be getting two coins? (like all the other hard fork fiascos?)  Yes, Constantinople is a Hard fork - but you won’t be getting two coins. Unlike the other fiascos, this isn’t a “contentious” fork. To understand this, let’s go over a couple of terms quickly & simply:

1. Block Reward Reduction ← A BIG ONE!

2. Cheaper Smart Contract Execution

3. Increased Efficiency on Verification of External Smart Contracts

4. State Channels!

5. Storage Cost Improvements

Block Reward Reduction: Constantinople will officially mark the reduction of the rewards issued to miners from 3 ether to 2 ether. This effectively reduces miner rewards by ⅓  and is often referred to as “The Thirdening“. This reduction in Block Rewards will significantly reduce the inflation rate of Ethereum.

Ethereum Inflation Rate Definition (Quick'n'Dirty)
 The speed at which each Ether loses it's purchasing power/value.

Constantinople will include the EIP145 proposal which will introduce “Shifting operators” to the Ethereum Virtual Machine. Put simply, this will allow Smart Contracts to initiate certain instructions for only 3 GAS compared to the 35 GAS it would have costed without the Shifting Operators.

This is a drastic reduction in the cost of these operations and contributes to Ethereum’s efficiency improvements.

This is another key efficiency improvement in the 2019 Constantinople update. Smart Contracts often need to perform verification checks on other Smart Contracts. Currently this is done by copying the bytecode of the external Smart Contract and then performing the needed verification. However, this can unnecessarily expensive when dealing with large Smart Contracts.  EIP 1052 tackles this problem by introducing a new function that will allow the Smart Contract to pull a hash of the bytecode instead.  This will make verifications far more efficient.

The Ethereum Constantinople 2019 Update will also include a keystone update for State Channels in Ethereum. EIP 1014 will allow interactions be made with addresses on the main chain that don’t exist yet .  This may sound confusing but is a key milestone for the implementation of State Channels. The goal of State Channels is to have as little load on the main chain as possible while still remaining secure. Unnecessary calculations and processes will take place off chain – thereby increasing the efficiency of the main Ethereum chain.

Constantinople will also include an update that will reduce the storage costs in Ethereum. EIP 1283  proposes a change to how gas is charged for EVM storage operations. The primary initiative of this proposal is to reduce excessive gas costs where unwarranted. And to enable new use-cases for contract storage.

With this, transactions that are making multiple updates to the same storage slot will cost significantly less!

​​​Ethereum’s soon approaching Constantinople hard fork, while significant, is still only a piece of the larger puzzle that is Serenity – Ethereum’s transition to Proof of Stake. ​​​

Follow up Reads:
1. Ethereum Roadmap Update
2. Casper v2: Beaconchain & Sharding
3. Ethereum Difficulty Bomb & Inflation Rate Explained

Three times this week I was asked the following question:

“Why are the prices still low when the fundamentals seem so strong?”

Fortunately, there’s a two-worded answer:  Animal Spirits 

It’s not a simple answer – not by a long shot. But it is, indeed, a short answer that encompasses the intricacies of greed, fear and human behaviour.

To understand this, let’s first question if prices are really low? Or are we simply benchmarking prices at their all time high  –  prices that were guided by the animal spirits of crypto investors.

John Maynard Keynes, a famous economist, used the term “Animal Spirits” to describe the irrational decisions investors make in an uncertain environment.

But today the phrase “Animal Spirits” seems to be used primarily in environments of high confidence.  Confidence & optimism, however, aren’t the only byproducts of Animal Spirits. Fear & pessimism play an equal share in the phenomenon.

Should it not then make sense that irrational confidence be followed by equally irrational fear? Optimism that drove prices to exuberant highs should follow with a similar anxiety that would drive prices to irrational lows. For if it does not follow, eventually at least, then perhaps the optimism was not irrational after all. In a way, this explains the driving mechanism of “bubbles” (and also why it’s claimed impossible to forecast)

Nobel Laureate winner Robert Shiller defines a ‘speculative bubble’ in his book ‘Irrational Exuberance’ as follows:

Interestingly, Robert Shiller makes sure to emphasise that “speculative bubbles” don’t simply burst and disappear. Rather, they tend to inflate and deflate in accordance to the accepted narrative.

A viral epidemic can reappear if a new environmental factor reignites the contagion rate.

Similarly, a deflated speculative bubble can “re-inflate” if a new narrative is strong enough to ignite the animal spirits of investors.

Ah, but this poses yet another tricky question for the crypto space.  Have we already “re-inflated”? After all, prices did surge to an all-time-high of $1000 before deflating to $200.

Have we already re-inflated?!

Is it possible that we see another epidemic spark the animal spirits to a point irrational confidence?

A strong argument can be made in favour of another speculative bubble – a larger one. In his definition of a “speculative bubble”, Shiller goes on to explain what follows the price increase in a speculative bubble:

The crypto market allowed for a new class of investors to be first entrants. They consisted mostly of people who were young & technologically sophisticated. But they were by no means the “large class of investors”. Those are yet to come in mass.

Already we hear  reports of new & larger entrants into the market. Will their success draw the envy of other institutions? And will that, in turn, lead to an environment of overconfident gambling and exuberance that we have seen in the past?

Only time will tell. But one thing is certain, never before have we seen events play out at this rapid of a pace. Ahh, what a time to be alive.

Radix DLT is beginning to garner increasing attention in the crypto-space. Radix rose from an obscure and exotic "coin" in 2017 to one of the most discussed technologies in 2018. Every week, I receive several questions on Radix’s Scalability & Sharding or on their Tempo Consensus Method.  But one of the more common questions goes something like this:

"Hey, what are your thoughts on the Radix Coin ? "​

It recently dawned upon me that while I’ve discussed Radix’s infrastructure, I haven’t really delved into the “Radix Coin”.  While Radix does indeed sport a crypto coin, it is so much more than that. Radix DLT is a fully fledged distributed ledger technology platform. The platform will feature decentralised applications, mass scalability, and of course, the Radix Coin as well – 'RDX'.

In this post, however, we focus our discussion on the Radix Coin (RDX) and its purpose in revolutionizing the digital economy. If you’re interested in the Radix  DLT Infrastructure – mainly its Consensus and Sharding approach, then you can read the following introductory & simple explanations:

• Radix Sharding  – Explained Simply
• Radix Tempo Consensus Algo – An Easy Analogy

The following sections will discuss how the Radix Coin will serve and benefit from the Radix DLT infrastructure.

The Radix Coin will be the token used on the Radix DLT platform to fuel various operations. However, the coin and the platform have special features that make the dynamic rather interesting. The Radix coin will be a relatively stable coin. Notice the word "relatively" – this is key. Several people mistaken the Radix Coin to be a stable coin. This can lead to confusion – especially for interested investors. 

Radix DLT designed the RDX token so as to have low-volatility. In that vein, the Radix Coin will initially be pegged against the US Dollar where 1 Radix Coin will be equivalent to $1 USD. However, after a certain period, the price of the Radix coin will float free.  Low-volatility and relative stability will be maintained by increasing the supply of the coins. 

“Wait, what the… what do you mean by ‘increasing’ supply of the coins? “

Don’t worry – we’re not talking about ‘Supply inflation’ here. Radix DLT will be using an algorithmic model that will monitor demand and accordingly increase as well as decrease the total supply of the Radix Coin at regular periods. The low volatility of the Radix Coin will help facilitate mass adoption. And the flexible supply should satisfy investor needs as well.

In the following sections, we will discuss how investors and merchants both benefit from this flexible supply system.

Upon first hearing “stable coin”, cryptocurrency investors are immediately skeptical. After all, why invest in something if it’s going to be stable in value? This is an understandable concern since we’re conditioned to the volatility of cryptocurrencies. The Radix Coin, however, functions sort of like a Bond with a variable interest rate.  The value of each Radix Coin may not rise and fall substantially. But the investor will receive more RDX at regular intervals which should increase his total amount of RDX.

For example, let’s say John has  2000 RDX. At the time, each RDX is valued at around $1.10.

• No. of RDX: 2000   
• Value of each RDX:  $1.10
• Total Value: $2200

In the coming months/years, the demand for the Radix Coin skyrockets! Now, each of John’s RDX will not increase drastically in value. Instead, the total number of RDX he has will increase.  His total Radix Coins will increase to 6000 RDX and each RDX will be worth $1.15 (Remember – the Radix Coin will be relatively stable.)

• No. of RDX: 6000  
• Value of each RDX:  $1.15
• Total Value: $6900

Note: This is just an example – as details on the calculations have yet to be released.

On the flip side – if the demand for the Radix Coin reduces, the platform has mechanisms in place that will perform a token-burn process to reduce the total supply of the Radix Coin. Again, details on how this process is yet to be revealed. We will all have to wait for the economic white paper that should be released closer to their mainnet launch.

However, we can rest assured that investors don’t have to worry about their investments being “stale”.

One of the biggest reasons the Radix Coin features relative stability is to facilitate mass adoption. Without stability, mass adoption across the world will be near impossible.

As things stand, the general public find it troublesome to hold cryptocurrencies for anything other than a speculative investment. You may hear increasingly more reports of merchants accepting cryptocurrencies as a form of payment. However, most of these merchants are immediately converting their cryptocurrency back into regular FIAT.  Why? Well, simply because merchants need to be able to rely on their revenue holding value in the months that follow. Cryptocurrencies are far too volatile to offer the level of reliability that merchants need in order to run an efficient and sustaining business.

Similarly, regular consumers will only hold a fraction of their purchasing power in cryptocurrencies for similar reasons. With the current state of the market, it’s a serious gamble to rely solely on your holdings of cryptocurrencies to pay your rent or mortgage. The Radix coin will safeguard against violent price swings using an elastic-supply. This will allow merchants and consumers to hold their Radix Coins with reduced risk.

Scalability has been one of the biggest limitations of current blockchain solutions. Most DLT consensus models have to make the tradeoff between throughput and decentralization. Radix, however, achieves high throughput, security and decentralization using a unique approach to Sharding along with their Consensus Method – Tempo .   The Radix DLT platform ensures that every single device can be part of the network and use the Radix Coin to transact with high speed across the globe.

With "Stable Coins", like the Radix Coin, being the latest talk of the town, its no surprise that investors and enthusiasts alike are blazing with questions on how to seize opportunity on this relatively new crypto class.

The concept of price stability around the radix coin will be primarily based on elastic supply. Depending on the demand of RDX, there will either be a coin issuance to each RDX holder, or a coin burn. While much of the economic structure behind the Radix coin is yet to be unveiled, their scaling solution - Radix Sharding & Tempo Consensus – has been fully implemented and tested. 

Follow up Reads:
1. Radix Sharding  – Explained Simply
2. Radix Tempo Consensus Algo – An Easy Analogy
3. Radix DLT – The Future of Crypto?

There’s been a great deal of confusion in regard to Ethereum’s new approach to Casper. Part of the confusion stems from the updated timeline for Ethereum’s PoS (proof of stake). And the other part of the confusion stems from this new “Beacon Chain” thingy.  Yes, I said ‘thingy’.

So, in this post I’m going to try to break things down in an easy manner for you guys. What exactly is the Beacon chain? And what role does it play in Proof Of Stake and Sharding

As usual, I’ll keep it simple – and avoid the unnecessary details.

Before we go any further, allow me to break down the structure of Ethereum’s Casper V2.  There will be three chains that we are concerned with:

1. The Ethereum PoW Chain
2. The Beacon Chain
3. The Sharding Chain(s).

All three of which will be linked together in Casper V2.

This is the chain that Ethereum is currently using. It’s using the traditional Proof Of Work (PoW) consensus method. In Ethereum’s Proof Of Work chain, miners currently validate blocks by running the PoW Cryptographic Puzzle.

However, Ethereum will be using Proof Of Stake in Casper. Miners will have to transition to the Proof of Stake chain if they want to keep validating blocks for the Ethereum Network.  To do so, they will have to deposit 32 Ether into the Beacon Chain. Once they do that, they will become Validators on the Beacon Chain.

Important:  Miners are not the only ones who can become validators. Anyone can deposit 32 Ether from the Ethereum PoW Chain to the Beacon chain to become a validator

Alright, so the Beacon Chain is where all the confusion stems from. But it’s actually quite simple. The Beacon Chain serves two primary roles

1. The main Proof Of Stake chain

2. The base layer of the Sharding solution

   
   

To Simplify: The Beacon Chain will link to the Shard Chains and “signal” which blocks from the Shards should be added onto the main chain. The main chain will be validated & finalized using Proof Of Stake. The main chain also resides on the Beacon Chain. The Beacon Chain will also play a crucial role with the Shard Chains. It links up to the Shard Chains to listen for blocks that will be included onto the beacon chain (the PoS chain).

Yes, there are going to be multiple Shard Chains. Remember, Sharding is an attempt to avoid having “every single node validate every single transaction”. This will allow for more scalability.  In order to do so, instead of having one single chain, we will have multiple shard chains. I explain Sharding in more detail in this article: Ethereum Sharding Explained Using An Analogy.

Essentially, you can think of the Shard Chain as a group/block of multiple chains. All the transactions will take place on these Shard Chains – and will be split between each shard.  The account data will also be stored on these shard chains.

Above, I mentioned the Beacon Chain links up to a Shard. Well, there’s also a link from the Shards to the Beacon chain. This link needs to be attested/signed-off by a sub-group of Validators that will be pseudo-randomly picked.
​

Casper will be using Proof Of Stake which does not require “mining” to validate blocks. If a miner wants to continue validating blocks on Casper, he will have to deposit 32 Ether into the Beacon Chain like everybody else.

Once 32 Ether is deposited, the person will go into the “Queued Validator” pool and eventually get added to the “Active Validator” pool. Active Validators will be responsible for producing blocks, sign off on blocks and sign off on links (to shards).

You may be wondering why the Ethereum team chose the term “Beacon Chain?”.  The Beacon Chain was originally only part of the Sharding spec. It’s role was (and still is)  to link up to Shard Chains and signal which blocks should be added to the main chain. 

The Validators utilize the crosslinks between the two chains to “listen” for new blocks on the shard chains. They then sign off on the block and the crosslink if it is to be included on the main chain.

Beacon essentially means “Lighthouse/signal” – and that’s precisely what the role that the Beacon Chain serves.

Disclaimer: I’m sort of taking an educated-guess at this one. To be honest, a lot of the terminology in Sharding & Casper PoS is sorta...confusing (e.g: proposer, collator, validator, committee...come on Vitalik!)

As you can see, the Beacon Chain in the new Casper implementation isn't all that complicated. All you need to know is that it will serve as the foundation for the Proof Of Stake and facilitate the communication via the Shard Chains (via cross-links).  You can become a Validator on the Beacon Chain if you deposit 32 Ether from the current PoW Chain. Once you do that, you can take part in the Proof Of Stake consensus process as well. Validation & Finality  will take place on the Beacon Chain. Transactions & Account Data will be on the Shard Chain.

Simple, eh? Tbh, maybe all you need to read is the conclusion of this post. Damn. Oh well.

Follow up Reads:
1. Casper Roadmap Update Explained
2. ​Ethereum Sharding - A Simple Analogy
3. Finality: Understanding Settlement & Finality

In this post we'll be discussing the Difficulty Bomb. However, please note that the Difficulty Bomb's purpose is not ONLY to adjust the inflation rate.

Ethereum Difficulty Bomb: What Is It? (In Detail)

However, finding the key is no easy task. It's much like trying to find a needle in a haystack: You could find it immediately, or it could take you a very long time. The time in takes to find the "key" or block – is known as the Block Time. 

An adjustment to increase the block-time is known as a difficulty bomb

​​​​​​​​​The time it takes a miner to find a block will increase. Hence, it gets more difficult for him to earn his rewards.

Conclusion: Difficulty Bomb, Ethereum Inflation & Prices

The Difficulty Bomb in Ethereum  can/will be used to adjust the time it takes a miner to find a block. This has a direct impact on Ethereum's inflation rate since it reduces the speed at which miners receive rewards. This, in turn, will reduce the total expected supply of Ethereum for the years to come. If supply goes down, prices will go up. If prices go up – then purchasing power  of each Ether increases. 

As of this writing, the average time it takes a miner to find a block in Ethereum is around 14 seconds. Remember, new Ether is issued to the miners as a reward each time a new block is created/validated. A difficulty bomb will decrease the rate at which these rewards are handed out And, in turn, reduce the inflation rate in Ethereum.

Ethereum's Casper was supposed to include a difficulty bomb along with Proof of Stake. As of now, both Casper and the difficulty bomb have been delayed. 

The past thirty days have seen a prolonged debate on an important matter: Ethereum’s Issuance. But be it an important matter or not – few of us seem to understand what’s going on.

To be fair, this issue has complexities that has brought indecision to even the best minds of this space. So, it’s not surprising that many of us have decided to glaze over the issue. However, as a community, we owe it to ourselves to understand at least the basics of this issue.

In this post, I will break down the Ethereum Issuance debate as simply as possible.  This will be an easy read – and by the end of the post you will have a firm understanding of what is going on.

Ethereum is “inflationary”. You hear it all the time. But many don’t seem to understand how the inflation is caused. It’s rather simple.  Ethereum miners get rewarded for mining new blocks. These miners get rewarded/paid in Ether. But this isn’t “existing” Ethereum; this is Ether that is freshly minted/created.

Essentially, miners are rewarded by issuing freshly minted Ether into the system. This “inflates” the existing supply in the market.  Hence the term “Inflation Rate”

The Ethereum inflation rate and issuance rate are pretty much the same thing – for the most part. There’s a tiny ‘difference’ that is worth discussing.  Let’s think about this for a second. There are two factors that will affect Ethereum’s inflation rate:

1. The speed at which fresh Ether is given out
2. The AMOUNT of Ether given out each time

Analogy
I can give you one piece of candy every minute; OR give you ten pieces of candy every ten minutes. Either way, over time I inflate your candy supply  at the same rate. You’ll have 100 candy pieces in 100 minutes.

Speed of Ether Issuance

Currently, the speed at which Ether is issued out is pretty stable. Ether is issued to miners as a reward each time a new block is created/validated. As things stand, the time taken to create a block is relatively stable at ~14 seconds.

However, if Ethereum increases the difficulty of “block creation”, then it will take longer to create each block. This is what people are referring to when they mention the “difficulty bomb”.  If it takes longer to create create blocks, then less Ether will be rewarded over a period of time

Analogy
I stop giving you 10 pieces of candy every 10 minutes, and instead give you 10 pieces of candy every 15 minutes. After 100 minutes, you’ll have only 66 pieces of candy (instead of 100)

Amount of Ether Issuance

The amount of Ether issued for each reward is the next driving factor for Ethereum’s inflation rate. And this is the most debated factor at the moment. Ethereum is currently issuing roughly 5.5 Ether per block (as rewards) If Ethereum decides to reduce the amount of Ether given out per reward, then the inflation rate will drop regardless of the difficulty bomb.

Analogy
I keep giving you candy every 10 minutes. However, I give you only 6 pieces of candy each time – instead of 10. You’ll have only 60 pieces of candy after 100 minutes.

The Problem

Reducing the Ether issued will cut into miner profits. But not reducing Ether issuance will anger the rest of the community (more on why later)

The current inflation rate is around 7.3% annually. The Ethereum community was promised somewhere around 2% - 4% with the release of Casper. (In fact, Vitalik once quoted ~0.5% as a feasible number – leading to even more expectations)

So, the community has been patiently waiting on a reduction in Ethereum’s inflation rate. This was supposed to happen with the release of Ethereum’s Proof Of Stake: Casper. If you’re keeping updated, you know about the delay on the Casper release.

​Casper was also supposed to include a “difficulty bomb” that would increase the time it takes to find a block. This would decrease the ethereum inflation rate

However, since Casper has been delayed, the community wants the matter of issuance being addressed right away.  If Ethereum has to delay the difficulty bomb, then the other course of action is to reduce the amount of Ether being issued per block. Many community members are advocating for a reduction of issuance that would align inflation rate to ~2%.  This would align the inflation rate to what it would be if Proof Of Stake was not delayed.

However the Ethereum Miners don’t like that idea – since it would cut directly into their profits. It’s important to note that Ethereum is still using Proof Of Work – which consumes a lot more power per block than Proof Of Stake would. Many miners claim that they would be forced off the network since the rewards would not be enough to cover their costs.

Miners do more than just process/validate our transactions. Each miner contributes to the security of the network via their hashpower. If overall hashpower drops, the network is easier to attack. (I touch on this in a YouTube video on 1% Shard Attack)

Essentially, the more miners we have, the more security we have. If miners drop off the network, security will begin to drop – and we’re more vulnerable to attacks.

As you may now be noticing, this issue does not have an easy solution. But we can get a better idea of which direction to take. First, let’s quickly go over where we currently stand.

The current Ether that is being issued is roughly 5.5 Ether per block. It’s important to note that unlike Bitcoin, the reward issuance is not straightforward.  Here is a simplified breakdown of the rewards distributed:

• Block Reward:  3 Ether
  Uncle Rewards:  ~2.4 Ether
  
  
• Total Ether issued per block: ~5.4 Ether   (Issuance reduction will decrease this)
  No. of blocks per day:  ~6000 Blocks (difficulty bomb will decrease this)
  ​
  
• Current Annual Increase:  ~7.3% (issuance reduction and/or difficulty bomb will reduce this)

(If you know what are Uncle Rewards , then you can skip this section)

Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum rewards miners that find blocks that don’t make it into the longest chain. These blocks that are considered “stale” in Bitcoin, and are orphaned. In Ethereum these are called Uncles and are rewarded for their work.

This is primarily because Ethereum has a much lower block-time (the average time required to find a block). This “small window” may result in smaller miners unfairly losing out on potential rewards due to network latency etc. As such, miners are rewarded for their work.

Of course, we cannot predict the exact number of Uncles – but we’re estimating that around 2.4 Ether will be given out to Uncles on average. Uncle Rewards are important because they:

a) Incentivise decentralization (small miners are less likely to join pools)
b) Increase the security of the chain. (more on this in another post)

Alright, now the fun part. There are three proposals – Ethereum Improvement Proposals  (EIPs) to be specific. Here’s a list and summary of each of them:

This would be a significant decrease from 3 ETH to 1 ETH. It would probably put several small/mid-size miners in the negative profitability.  Many miners may drop off the network. However, this would probably benefit miners who have access to cheap electricity since they will be able to accrue more rewards for themselves. Larger miners may probably benefit for the same reasons.

This will be a significant reduction to the Uncle Rewards – from ~2.4 ETH to  ~0.56 ETH. Ouch. This will affect small miners the most since they rely on the Uncle Rewards. Furthermore, this reduces the incentive for them to remain independent; and may lead to larger shift of small miners to joining pools.  Of course, larger miners who aren’t affected by network latency issues do not get affected by this reduction. They benefit the most from this since the issuance will be maintained.

This EIP seems to be receiving the most favour from the community. It serves as a good middle ground. it will still eat into profits of miners, but not as significantly as the reduction that EIP 858 proposes. EIP-1234 does seem to have an air of “compromise”. It will offer developers enough time to develop & release Casper while keeping both sides of the community at bay. Is compromise the best way to go? -shrug-

 A vote took place – that lasted 30 days – where the community voted on their preference. Although the results were leaning significantly toward one side, these results are not binding. The vote was more-so to gauge community sentiment. Quite frankly, this issue is far too important to be decided over a vote like this. It requires serious consideration & research.

There was a core-dev meeting that took place last week where the matter was discussed. It seems like the developers are leaning towards EIP1234 – the reduction to 2ETH. However, I'm not certain if this has been confirmed.  If so, EIP1234 will be included in the upcoming hardfork scheduled for mid October.

I’ll keep you guys posted – and I will be updating this post regularly as news develops.

UPDATE:  Seems like EIP1234 has been accepted – on a conditional basis, however. Furthermore, the proposal still remains in a "draft" state, and minor changes may be made before finalisation

There has been a lot of talk about Bitcoin ETFs recently - So let’s explore the basics of what a Bitcoin ETF really is, and the implications of it. 

Put as simply as possible, an ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) is traded on the stock market just like a stock, but instead of being a share in a public company such as Amazon, it tracks the price of an asset instead. 

There are many types of ETF's that track different things, but for simplicity lets use Gold as an example:

If you think gold is going to rise in price, you could go to a stock exchange and buy shares of a Gold ETF, which can be shares in a Trust which stockpiles physical gold. If gold goes up, the ETF shares will go up similarly. This way, you don’t have to go to a futures market or hold any gold yourself. 

A bitcoin ETF would be similar to the above example: an easily tradable asset that ultimately tracks the Bitcoin price. Traders and investors could go Long (buying in anticipation of increasing price) or Short (selling in anticipation of decline).

It may not matter much at all. We got this far without an ETF after all. However the clearest benefit to a Bitcoin ETF is in opening the market to many more participants and significantly more capital. 

In much the same way as you don’t want barrels of crude oil in your living room, many individuals and institutions don’t fancy getting their hands dirty on the unregulated, uninsured, hackable, dodgy overseas crypto exchanges such as Bitfinex.

Many ETFs have been proposed to the SEC (US Securities Exchange Commision). However, all but one of these were all recently denied by the SEC, killing most of the dreams and leaving one last man standing: The VanEck SolidX ETF.

This is the ETF you have probably heard most about, brought to the SEC by a partnership of Investment firm VanEck and financial services company SolidX. This proposal is also endorsed by the CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange), known for launching their Bitcoin futures in December), and if approved it would trade on the CBOE exchange.  

Buying this proposed ETF would basically represent shares in a Trust, and the Trust’s assets would be securely-stored Bitcoin (insured against loss or theft). Therefore as bitcoin rises in price, the assets of this Trust appreciate and make money.

ETF Hopefuls file a “Proposed Rule Change” to the SEC. When received, the SEC posts a “Notice of Filing” and then has 45 days to approve or deny (or delay decision on) the proposed ETF. 

Here is the Notice of Filing for the most hyped up ETF of the year, the VanEck/SolidX ETF (mentioned above):

“Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change to List and Trade Shares of SolidX Bitcoin Shares Issued by the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin Trust”

VanEck/SolidX ETF Approval - When Will We Know?

The SEC delayed the decision on the VanEck/SolidX ETF to September. They are able to delay further 2 more times, and very likely to do so. This gives the deadlines of:

1. September 30

2. December 29

3. And finally, February 27 

Bitcoin ETF's & The SEC - What Does It All Mean?

The SEC is not friendly to these proposals, and their reasons are clear.

The Bitcoin market is unregulated, easy to manipulate, and not liquid enough (not enough trading volume occurs). The SEC are concerned that Bitcoin trading almost exclusively 

occurs on unregulated venues overseas that are relatively new and that generally appear to trade only digital assets.

Given these problems, the VanEck/SolidX ETF is also in trouble, as currently it does not appear to solve any of them. There is a low likelihood that it will be accepted, at least before the Crypto markets have matured a whole lot.

While an ETF would be great for adoption and more widespread trading of Bitcoin, it is certainly not a necessity, and many other projects are in the works, such as those listed in our article: