Bitcoin Analysis. Short-Mid Term Price Action, Feb 2021.

By Olley / February 16, 2021

Looking at this formation here with three potential scenarios. In my eyes, this is an ascending triangle breakout, the same one that Shawn and many other members in the Grove have posted about recently.

I am looking for upwards continuation based on other indicators all in agreement on multiple time frames (I am talking about the higher time frames like the 2D, 3D, 4D & Weekly here). Volatility has been really low on many time frames and is starting to expand now, which means we will probably see the resolution of this formation up or down in the next 1-3 days at most.

I have a target of at least 53k from the measured move of the formation, but I would aim for 58-60k based on other Fibonacci extension levels.

If BTC loses this blue horizontal zone between $48700-49000 I think a move to at least that rising trend line and likely back down to purple box ($46600-47000). BTC would probably continue some ranging between these zones.

Break below purple support box will change my bullish bias, to more medium-term ‘bearish’. But would look for the marked levels around ($43,000 – 44,000) to bounce, which would likely line up with the Daily 21EMA as well.

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I also like to look for confluence with CMEs (BTC1!) which look a lot more like an ascending triangle than spot price action. (Chart below).
As long as it holds the 4hr 21EMA or Dynamic for that matter the trend is still up and I lean for continuation higher.

The Mango Dynamic on CMEs 4hr chart has been really accurate for the past couple of months, and this recently flipped green and is continuing to climb & use the blue dots as great opportunities alongside the 10SMA. I look at this as a way to determine the overall trend, as long as it keeps supporting price, naturally, it will continue higher.

  • I want to see momentum oscillators like RSI, Stochs & MACD all gaining positive momentum, start to get stronger as price moves higher.
  • A high volume node will be a useful indicator for confirmation as well.

[Link]

Overall, this is looking like a bullish continuation formation, and we are highly likely going to see resolution very soon. I am leaning bullish from my own view of the indicators I see on the lower time frames, but also because the Weekly looks really strong. However, the support levels I have defined need to be held for this to happen.

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Olley


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